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Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology
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Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology; 2002; v. 35; issue.1; p. 71-78
© 2002 Geological Society of London

Regular Article

Uncertainty in ground motion estimates for the evaluation of slope stability during earthquakes

W. Murphy1, D.N. Petley2, J. Bommer3 & J.M. Mankelow4

1 1School of Earth Sciences, the University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT. UK. (e-mail: w.murphy@earth.leeds.ac.uk)
2 2Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK. (e-mail: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk)
3 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BU, (e-mail: j.bommer@ic.ac.uk)
4 4British Geological Survey, Kingsley Dunham Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK, (e-mail: jmank@bgs.ac.uk)

Three examples of landslides triggered by earthquakes have been examined to consider the natural variability of the slope forming materials, and the uncertainties surrounding input ground motions. These were the landslides at Villa Del Monte, California, Tachia Gorge, Taiwan and Las Colinas, El Salvador which were triggered by the Loma Prieta, (MW=7.0, 1989), Chi Chi, (MW=7.6, 1999) and El Salvador (MW=7.6, 2001) earthquakes respectively. The results of these analyses show a large scatter in the calculated factors of safety for earthquake conditions, some of which indicated stability when failure actually occurred.

The models used in the calculation of seismic slope stability yield acceptable results. However, it is clear that the natural variability of slope forming materials has a strong influence on the range of results reported for the analysis of slopes subjected to strong shaking. This variability is exacerbated by limited knowledge about the interaction with seismic waves and slopes resulting in topographic amplification. Such problems are often further complicated by uncertainty and error associated with attenuation relationships.

Key Words: Slope stability • earthquakes • landslides




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