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Predicting backward erosion piping hazard, Lower Mississippi Valley, USA

View ORCID ProfileS. Semmens and View ORCID ProfileW. Zhou
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 54, qjegh2020-035, 9 September 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2020-035
S. Semmens
1Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines1516 Illinois St, , , USA
Roles: [Conceptualization (Lead)], [Data curation (Lead)], [Formal analysis (Lead)], [Investigation (Lead)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Validation (Lead)], [Visualization (Lead)], [Writing - Original Draft (Lead)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
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  • ORCID record for S. Semmens
  • For correspondence: ssemmens@mines.edu
W. Zhou
2Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines1500 Illinois St, , , USA
Roles: [Formal analysis (Supporting)], [Funding acquisition (Lead)], [Investigation (Supporting)], [Methodology (Supporting)], [Project administration (Lead)], [Resources (Lead)], [Supervision (Lead)], [Visualization (Supporting)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Supporting)]
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Abstract

Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a form of internal erosion and common failure mode along levees. Despite over a century of study, predicting where BEP will initiate is still a considerable challenge. This study proposes a new model for predicting BEP initiation focused on the widest range of applicability. A logit model is trained using data from 15 sites along the Lower Mississippi Valley. The included parameters are independent of geography or geological regime and exhibit recorded or suspected correlations to BEP. Three significant factors (95% confidence interval) are retained for the final model: cumulative clay thickness within the blanket (odds ratio (OR) 0.520), critical gradient (OR 0.001) and exit gradient (OR 63.15). Receiver operating characteristics analysis indicates an area under the curve of 0.823. The model demonstrates 71% classification accuracy, a dramatic 10% increase over previous logit model attempts. Model results are most applicable within 150 m of the levee toe to predict new incidents of BEP initiation. The final model is a useful tool for BEP assessment and mitigation efforts.

  • © 2020 The Author(s). Published by The Geological Society of London. All rights reserved
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Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology: 54 (1)
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology
Volume 54, Issue 1
February 2021
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Predicting backward erosion piping hazard, Lower Mississippi Valley, USA

S. Semmens and W. Zhou
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 54, qjegh2020-035, 9 September 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2020-035
S. Semmens
1Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines1516 Illinois St, , , USA
Roles: [Conceptualization (Lead)], [Data curation (Lead)], [Formal analysis (Lead)], [Investigation (Lead)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Validation (Lead)], [Visualization (Lead)], [Writing - Original Draft (Lead)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • ORCID record for S. Semmens
  • For correspondence: ssemmens@mines.edu
W. Zhou
2Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines1500 Illinois St, , , USA
Roles: [Formal analysis (Supporting)], [Funding acquisition (Lead)], [Investigation (Supporting)], [Methodology (Supporting)], [Project administration (Lead)], [Resources (Lead)], [Supervision (Lead)], [Visualization (Supporting)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • ORCID record for W. Zhou

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Predicting backward erosion piping hazard, Lower Mississippi Valley, USA

S. Semmens and W. Zhou
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 54, qjegh2020-035, 9 September 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2020-035
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